We are already at over 9 months of unsold housing inventory in San Diego. The majority of properties offered for sale (new & resale) have huge buyers and buyer’s agent incentives. All this occurring during the traditional strong Summer selling season. Can anyone doubt that this market will get much worse as we head into the Fall and Winter?
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My most recent sale, sold in 23 days – Four offers were received – Had a 30 day escrow!Â
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Most importantly, the seller, received $3,000 over the projected net sales price which was given to the Sellers prior to the listing of the property!Â
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My dad was in real estate and I followed it about as closely as he did for over 20 years…I remember a time when houses went ridiculously up and up and up and then the market crashed BIG TIME. I’m talking houses dropping around $100,000…so yes people who bought then were really screwed if they wanted to sell anytime within the next 10 years…because it took that long for their houses to be worth what they bought them for. I guess those that bought either had to buy, or thought now is a good time to dump this place and move into something better…who knows..but they all bought….and no doubt regretted it since.
But that was because of speculation and real estate agents themselves were buying and turning houses over so they helped drive the prices up themselves. The government quickly came up with Capital Gains Tax to put an end to quick turnovers…people would basically fix and sell houses within 6 months or a year driving prices up…I don’t really know what else factored into that “crazy period” but houses since have gone up slowly and stayed up. If you’re near a big city, houses in the city will be worth a lot more even if they are pure garbage with no land to go with them…it’s crazy. Any free land around us now is being bought by developers and either matchbox houses, townhouses or condos are going up….you do not see houses being built anymore…everywhere you go is a traffic nightmare and congested thanks to all these people wedged together like that
People will not lose “money”: they will lose the anticipated equity that they banked on when they bought more than they could realistically afford, through ARMs or worse: “Option” loan products.
The buyers who hopped on the gravy train at the beginning made killings. They also took the most risk. The ones who got on later were too late. The market wised up, interest rates went up and consumers began to see the writing on the wall.
What will happen in Southern CA, among other things: 1. Government agencies will begin investigating all the loan fraud, taking out some major lending players. As a result of auditing, lenders will be forced to buy back their secondary market loans and lending practices will become more conservative, eliminating a HUGE segment of the homebuying population (They will no longer qualify). 2. Real estate prices will drop because homes cannot sell without qualified buyers.