San Diego County Residential Real Estate Market Analysis – 3rd Quarter 2012
©2012 By Mark A. Melikian California Certified Residential Appraiser appraisals@san.rr.com P.O. Box 3051 Del Mar, California 92014 858-793-9339
The following is a market data summary of detached and attached properties as reported by the San Diego County MLS system. The data includes all zip codes in San Diego County. * All 2012 data in figures 1 through 4 will be projected based on market data taken from January through September as reported by the San Diego County MLS system. All projections discussed in this analysis will be updated throughout the year in subsequent quarterly reports.
Market Overview: The data provided analyzes residential real estate sales beginning in the year 2000, which is used as the base year. The number of sold listings in San Diego County peaks in 2003 at 42,746 units and decreases through 2008 to 23,972 units. *The 2012 projection shows the total number of units sold for the year will be 35,317, which would be the highest number since 2005 (see figure 1)
Market Overview: The monthly absorption rate (number of units sold in a given month) will mirror the trend we see in the number of sold listings. The peak monthly absorption rate occurred in 2003 with 3,562 units selling per month. In 2008, the monthly absorption rate decreased to a low of 1,998 units. *The projection for 2012 shows a monthly absorption rate of 2,943 (see figure 2).
Market Overview: The mean sold price for a housing unit in San Diego County peaked in 2007 at $621,675. The mean sold price in 2009 decreased to a low of $385,754, a 37.9 percent decrease from the market peak in 2007. *In 2012, the projected mean sold price is $428,542, which would represent a 31.1 percent decrease from the market peak in 2007 (see figure 3).
Figure 3
Market Overview: The mean number of days a property was on the market in San Diego County reached a low of 29 in 2004. *The projection for 2012 shows the mean number of days on market to be at 75, slightly below last year’s number of 79 (see figure 4).
Detached Housing Market Specifics – 3rd Quarter 2012 compared with 3rd Quarter 2011: Detached home sales data for the 3rd quarter of 2012 shows the highest number of sales (1920 units) were between $300,000 and $400,000. This reflects an upward shift from the 3rd quarter of 2011 when the highest number of sales (1522 units) were between $200,000 and $300,000 (see figure 5).
Attached Housing Market Specifics – 3rd Quarter 2012 compared with 3rd Quarter 2011: Attached home sales data for the 3rd quarter of 2012 shows the highest number of sales (1102 units) were below $200,000. This is consistent with the 3rd quarter of 2011, when the highest number of sales (1287 units) were also below $200,000 (see figure 6).
Detached and Attached Housing Market Specifics – 3rd Quarter 2012 Housing Supply: Normal residential real estate markets typically have a six to seven month supply of housing inventory. Based on 3rd quarter 2012 absorption rates, current supply levels for detached properties are at (or below) normal market levels up to the $1,500,000 plus price range. Current supply levels for attached properties are at (or below) normal market levels up to the $900,000 plus price ranges (see figure 7).
Â
Comments and Outlook: Based on the first nine months of the year, projections for the 2012 San Diego County housing market show increases in both sales volume and sales prices over those in 2011 (the mean sales price is projected to increase by 4.5 percent). The highest volume of sales activity for detached units is projected for those properties priced below $400,000. The highest volume of sales activity for attached units is projected for those properties priced below $200,000. Both sales volume and sales prices increased during the third quarter.
Historical data demonstrates that the mean sales price of housing has found a balance near the $400,000 price range. For a historical perspective, the current mean sales price is approximately at the same level as in 2002 (see figure 3).
Housing supplies have reached below normal levels across a wide range of price ranges (see figure 7). The number of current listings and absorption rates suggests a continuation of a competitive environment, in the near future, for buyers in most housing price ranges. The impact of current supply levels continues to result in an increase in sales prices, as noted above.
The highest number of detached housing sales continues to be below $400,000. The highest number of attached housing sales continues to be below $200,000. The number of overall housing sales is projected to increase slightly in 2012 and most sales appear to remain in the lower price ranges (entry level housing).
As noted above, supply levels are below normal in most price ranges, and both sales volume and sales prices have increased this year. As the data reflects a more competitive environment for most buyers, many real estate professionals are reporting multiple offers on their listings. Cash buyers, investors and owner occupants with financing are all competing for available listing inventory. Subsequent reports will continue to analyze the trends in local housing supplies, sales volume and sales prices.
