July 12, 2024

Current trends in the housing market

Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, Yale University professor of economics, discusses the divergence between the U.S. stock market and the underlying economy and comments on recent trends in the housing market.

Mr. Robert Shiller is a politician. He won’t call a spade a spade until he throws it onto the table and everyone sees it, the dealer recognizes it, the pot is shifted to the winner. He can’t say what he really thinks because: 1. Any prediction will be held against him if it’s even slightly wrong and he will lose credibility. 2. Anything he predicts could be a self-fulfilling prophecy (housing is going to crash, buyers wait, etc) 3. He won’t sell his books if he gives you the outcome.

Current trends in the housing market

2019 San Diego real estate Outlook - Current trends in the housing market

 

Looking at his own index would tell him the market is in bubble territory.. Before the crash it was the 2nd highest valuation ever (above Great Depression and under Dot-Com) and now it comes in 3rd (missing ~ 5% till peak Great Depression).
I just don’t know how anyone trusts the US stock market right now. Seems like a house of cards waiting to topple over. I left every cent in the market even when it crashed to its lowest point after the pandemic was in full force. I wasn’t scared. It absolutely should have gone down. But now that it is almost back to all time highs when it has absolutely no business being there, I am terrified. I will be sitting on nearly all cash until actual good news comes out. Maybe I miss out on a 10% gain. Maybe I avoid a 50% loss. Seems weighted in my favor.
I believe with the debt problem in the US $100 trillion and global $1 quadrillion is much more serious than they are saying. Problems started back during the 2000 .com crash and have slowly been getting worse. The job market has been going down hill for 20 years. Gig and part-time jobs cannot support a family or economy. The virus only exposed a weak US and global economy. This is a global financial, banking, and economic crisis which started with the debt and bond markets collapsing. This is a debt, credit, currency, and bankruptcy crisis. The COVID19 virus is a black swan scapegoat.

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