July 13, 2024

Housing Outlook 2022

US Census Bureau data shows possible trouble in the 2022 Housing Market!

The number of Americans moving just crashed to an all-time low in 2021. Only 27 million people, or 8% of the US population, moved into new homes and apartments over the last year. That’s less than half the levels of 20-30 years ago.

Housing Outlook 2022

Housing Outlook 2022

 

Could this lack of people moving mean that the US Housing Market is in a massive Housing Bubble in 2021? That could turn into a Housing Crash in 2022?

This data flies in the face of the conventional Housing Market Forecast and Narrative, which suggests that more Americans than ever are moving, especially to hot Sun Belt housing markets such as Tampa, Austin, Dallas, and Phoenix.

This data from the US Census Bureau suggests that only 253k net domestic movers bought a house or rented a new apartment in the South. That’s actually BELOW the long-term average. Despite this stabilization, or reduction, in moving to the South, Home Prices and Rents are escalating wildly.

Home prices in the Austin Real Estate Market are up 45% YoY, while they’re up by 35% in Phoenix’s Housing market and 30% in Tampa. Many people thought these price increases were the result of more people moving to states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona. But this data suggests otherwise.

Meaning that it might be Real Estate Investors who are coming in and fueling the housing market expansion in many of these areas. This theory is consistent with data from Redfin that suggests Housing Markets like Miami, Phoenix, and Atlanta have the highest levels of investor demand (nearly 30% of all homes purchased by LLC/Corp).

Only time will tell. Bubbles can be amazingly resilient. Remembering thinking the same thing and having discussions with RE investor friends in 2004, then 2005 happened. They thought I was nuts. Then 2006 saw changing weather, figuratively speaking, and by early 07, writing was on the law. Funny thing, in those 04 discussions, my more optimistic investor friends had every logical argument on why things would keep going and saw no real reason why things could slow and definitely no way they could retreat. Sound familiar?

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