July 14, 2024

California housing crash

Five states that could be heading for a huge economic collapse and housing crash.

People are moving out of these states in droves. Job losses in these states are near record highs according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With government stimulus programs ending (eviction moratorium, unemployment assistance, and stimulus checks) and interest rates rising, these job losses could lead to a devastating economic downturn and housing crash.

California housing crash

States that voted heavily for Joe Biden in 2020 – California, New York, Maryland, and Vermont – have some of the highest job losses over the last 18 months. Meanwhile, states that voted more heavily for Trump – Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming – are experiencing much stronger economic recoveries.

The realities of these job losses – and the migration exodus (aka moving out of California and New York) – from Biden / Blue States have largely been hidden from the local economy and housing market by extended government intervention such as the eviction and foreclosure moratoriums an extended unemployment insurance. But these programs are now expiring, which will put the weight of these heavy California and New York job losses onto their local economies.

Why is there such a big difference in job losses by state party affiliation (Democrat v. Republican)? Policy response to the pandemic seems to be one reason. According to data from Wallet Hub, states with the heaviest restrictions and mandates have the highest job losses.

In particular – cities such as New York and Los Angeles are in extremely rough shape. New York City has experienced an 8.4% decline in jobs over the last two years according to data from the BLS. This is the Big Apple’s biggest economic decline ever since the BLS started tracking job data in the mid-1970s.

Los Angeles is down 6.7% on their job count over the last two years, similar to the peak job losses experienced during the 2009 Financial Crisis and early 1990s recession.

Interestingly, despite these cities already experiencing some of the worst economic conditions they ever have, and many people moving out New York and Los Angeles, they are digging their heels in further on enforcing mandates and restrictions. It will be interesting to track the BLS jobs data in future months to see if the economic decline gets even worse.

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