July 13, 2024

Real Estate Crash

I found this video does an excellent job of explaining what fundamental factors are going to come into play during the new 2021 real estate market crash. For those of you have not been following my blog, my first post where I called the real estate market top was June 15, 2021 (https://brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou/real-estate-market-downturn/ ) . On June 17 I had a follow-up post ( https://brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou/real-estate-market-bust/ ) where I added additional indicators, that to me showed that the market was in a topping phase right now! I put the links to each one of those prior post above, and would suggest if you’re interested, to reread those posts!

Lot’s of commentators like to bring up sub-prime (ARM loans in particular), as the leading culprit for setting off the last value crash, and how this time it’s different. However sub-prime lending does not fully explain decline disparity between cities.

Real Estate Crash

California Housing Markets 2021  -  Real Estate Crash

Remember that sub-prime loans were more or less spread evenly throughout the country. What we did see were increasing waves of homeowners who simply stopped making payments once they realized their home was worth less than what they owed (aka, underwater). Many were simply ‘banking’ a years worth of payments during the redemption/foreclosure process and took the credit score hit. 3 years later they were FHA eligible to buy another home. This bail-out mind-set will likely be far more prevalent in communities where lots of in-bound migration has recently occurred, a place where deep friend/family roots are absent. The pull one feels from ‘back home’ is always there; I’d suspect there will be very low tolerance for sticking it out long term in an underwater home situation, in a unfamiliar zip code. Add to this that inbound migration and market froth are closely correlated.

Today, there are two factors at play that weren’t in place historically. The massive amount of money inserted into the present economy (COVID stimulus) as well as the supply/demand differentials based on Migrations (fleeing COVID policies). I believe a market like Phoenix isn’t going to replicate the 08 recession dip because of both of those factors. People are pouring into these types of markets to get away from other markets (California) as political refugees.
DISCLAIMER: This video content is intended only for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes. Your use of , or your reliance on any information on this blog is solely at your own risk. Moreover, the use of the Internet (including, but not limited to, YouTube, E-Mail, and Instagram) for communications with Brokerforyou.com does not establish a formal business relationship.  Before acting on any major real estate purchase or sale decision one would be extremely foolish not to first consult with their own legal and financial advisors before making the move that could turn out to be detrimental for their particular situation.
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