San Diego County Residential Real Estate Market Analysis:Â 2nd Quarter 2012
©2012 By Mark A. Melikian California Certified Residential Appraiser appraisals@san.rr.com P.O. Box 3051 Del Mar, California 92014 858-793-9339 *This part two of two Detached Housing Market Specifics – 2nd Quarter 2011 compared with 2nd Quarter 2012: Detached home sales data for the 2nd quarter of 2012 shows the highest number of sales (1887 units) were between $300,000 and $400,000. This is similar to the 2ndquarter of 2011 when the highest number of sales (1507 units) were also between $300,000 and $400,000 (see figure 5).
San Diego Attached Housing Market Specifics – 2nd Quarter 2011 compared with 2nd Quarter 2012: Attached home sales data for the 2nd quarter of 2012 shows the highest number of sales (1257 units) were below $200,000. This is consistent with the 2ndquarter of 2011, when the highest number of sales (1331 units) were also below $200,000 (see figure 6).
Detached and Attached Housing Market Specifics – 2nd Quarter 2012 Housing Supply: Normal residential real estate markets typically have a six to seven month supply of housing inventory. Based on 2nd quarter 2012 absorption rates, current supply levels for detached properties are at (or below) normal market levels up to the $1,500,000 plus price range. Current supply levels for attached properties are at (or below) normal market levels up to the $900,000 plus price ranges (see figure 7).
Comments and Outlook: Based on the first half of the year, projections for the 2012 San Diego County housing market show slight increases in both sales volume and sales prices over those in 2011. The highest volume of sales activity for attached units is projected for those properties priced below $200,000. The highest volume of sales activity for detached units is projected for those properties priced below $400,000. Both sales volume and sales prices increased during the second quarter. These increases reversed projections for slight decreases in both categories based on data from the first quarter.
Historical data demonstrates that the mean sales price of housing has found a balance near the $400,000 price range. For a historical perspective the current mean sales price is approximately at the same level as in 2002 (see figure 3).
Housing supplies have reached below normal levels across a wider range of price ranges (see figure 7). The number of current listings and absorption rates suggests the potential for a more competitive environment, in the near future, for buyers in most housing price ranges. The impact of current supply levels is beginning to show an increase in sales prices, as noted above.
The highest number of detached housing sales continues to be below $400,000. The highest number of attached housing sales continues to be below $200,000. While the number of overall housing sales is projected to increase slightly in 2012, most sales appear to remain in the lower price ranges (entry level housing).
Supply levels are below normal in most price ranges; therefore sales prices could continue to increase modestly during the third quarter. Subsequent reports will continue to analyze trends in local housing supplies, sales volume and sales prices.
