September 13, 2024

CreditSights published a report titled US Mortgage Outlook Part 1: State of Subprime. This states in part:

“However, most subprime borrowers are already financially stretched even without higher monthly payments. This financial overburdening may mean that the continuing falls in house prices prompts borrowers to wonder whether the sacrifices of paying towards a depreciating investment is economically sensible. Given that it is almost certainly cheaper to rent an equivalent property and that subprime borrowers are unlikely to be losing much in the way of credit score from a default, it is increasingly difficult to see how ‘transaction costs’ can provide much of an argument against defaulting.”

As a result we believe negative equity is playing a progressively more important roll in determining whether borrowers are defaulting.

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