July 19, 2024

 

My reference to bull in the title of this post is not referring to a bull market revival, but, to the forecasts for a San Diego real estate market rebound in 2009.

With the median one year San Diego home price decline approximately 30% and the San Diego residential housing market having been in a steady decline since the summer of 2005, renting has been far better than purchasing.

When one loses 30% or more home equity in one year, don't buy the old cop-out line of "in the long run the housing prices will return to their old highs." For San Diego residential real estate, this is the worst market since the great depression. Unlike a 'normal' correction or pull-back, this once in a lifetime evaporation of real estate values will not soon be forgotten. Partially because of the trauma inflicted on the public's perception of ever-escalating real estate values, will the San Diego real estate market 'snap back' anytime soon.

First the decline has to bottom and then it will most probably take a few years of base building prior to any return of meaningful appreciation. 

Naturally, at this New Year period, the glowing forecasts for a real estate recovery have already started. Will these pundits be right this time around? You'll have to draw your own conclusions. Why not see how some of the prior forecasts really paned out:

On July 14, 2008 Barron's magazine said:  "Home prices are about to bottom." Well, since than, the decline has only accelerated.

Look at this chart for a graphic example of prior real estate market forecasts:

San Diego real estate market

Often when real estate values go south, it's typical to hear the industry blame the media for making the situation seem worse than the reality. The truth is, for our current home equity bust, the reality, in many cases, is far worse than the local reporting.

It seems that finally the preponderance of evidence has caused the die-hard San Diego real estate bulls to admit the folly of their over optimism.  Now a number of these same misguided forecasters are forecasting a 2009 turnaround. Perhaps that would have a faint possibility if this was a 'regular' correction. However, this huge erosion of San Diego home equity was is far from typical.

Realistically, I feel the best 2009 can bring to the San Diego housing market is some easing in the rate of depreciation with a possible beginning of a bottoming process starting late in the year or early 2010. La Jolla real estate

Other bloggers Real Estate Predictions For 2009:

TheStar.com | News & Features | What's in store for housing market …– After 2009, he is forecasting that the market will "flatline" for three or possibly four years, with not much activity, similar to the 1992 to 1997 period in the Toronto market after the last real estate bubble burst. …

Wilting real estate market makes rent-to-own an option – WalletPop …– Wilting real estate market makes rent-to-own an option. Zac Bissonnette Jan 2nd 2009 at 8:00AM. Text SizeAAA. Filed under: Real Estate. Investor's Business Daily reports that "Across the country, particularly in overbuilt or struggling …

Charlottesville Regional Housing Inventory Update for January 2009 …– by Jim Duncan on January 3, 2009. This is a post to provide a baseline going forward rather than a comprehensive analysis. We all know where the Charlottesville regional real estate market stands; predicting tomorrow, next week, …

The San Francisco Marina Real Estate Market Report: December 2008– Happy 2009 to all! I kept hearing in the month of December that no real estate sells in the month of December. Who would want to buy or sell during the holidays? Well, there are actually properties that sold in the month of December in …

The housing market in 2009? It’s anyone’s guess – Bizjournals.com …– The housing market in 2009? It’s anyone’s guessBizjournals.com, NC – 1 hour agoWe asked three experts in the local housing market what to expect.

Greater Hartford Real Estate Blog » Greater Hartford’s 2008 Real …– Greater Hartford’s 2008 Real Estate Market Statistics. January 3rd, 2009 | Written by Amy Bergquist. So, just how bad was the 2008 real estate market in the Greater Hartford area? The numbers are in. They’re not necessarily pretty, …

Cape San Blas Real Estate Blog » Cape San Blas Real Estate Market …– Cape San Blas real estate market information including Indian Pass, Port St. Joe, C-30 Corridor and Florida's beautiful Forgotten Coast.

UCI economist eyes housing recovery in 2011 or later – Lansner on …– HAHAHAHAHAHA. pdu Says: January 3rd, 2009 at 5:10 pm. A background in Wisconsin real estate and an MIT-Harvard “Urban Studies” degree qualifies this guy for commenting on the future of the OC real estate market in exactly what way? …

The real estate market – 2009 « India Real Estate Tracker– The real estate market – 2009. Posted by paragjani on January 2, 2009. The global financial meltdown has had the first level impact – that of shocking the world and causing the global markets to crash. Once the markets recaliberate …

4 Reasons To Get in the Ann Arbor Real Estate Game in 2009 | Ann …– 9 Housing-Market Head Winds for 2009. Recession (Started 12/07…in 2008 we sold MORE real estate than in 2007!) Higher Unemployment (still over 93% of folks are employed!) Consumer Confidence (perception v. reality: “we’re fine, …

Charlotte Home prices hold up well in 2008 … tops in Case Shiller?– Charlotte Real Estate Market Report 2008. According to the Case Shiller report, Charlotte home prices rose through the spring and early summer, before making very modest drops beginning in August. The September- October 2008 decline of …

talk | discussion | StreetEasy New York Real Estate Search– Real Estate Predictions For 2009. 2 comments. stevejhx. about 1 hour ago. ignore this person. The year 2008 saw prices fall and foreclosures rise, but will 2009 see the real estate market get back on track? In a word, not likely. …

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