San Diego real estate appreciation will never be the same without insanely-loose credit. Where will the spending for a housing recovery come from? People are tightening their belts, and it's not a temporary thing. Our lifestyles have to change, and it's going to be ugly combined with all the other factors (like $51 trillion in unfunded government liabilities).
If a San Diego housing recovery means getting back to 2005 highs, that seems unlikely in the next 2 to 3 years; maybe in 8 to 10 years. Stimulus packages and bailouts may allow the San Diego housing recovery pipe-dream to continue a little longer, but confidence is broken and mortgage lender responsibility is out the window.
I know this forecast is not something that any San Diego homeowner wants to hear right now, but it's a harsh possibility that we all have to accept.
It would be better for the news outlets, politicians, pundits, realtors, et al., to start telling people the truth, rather than filling their heads with pipe dreams, whilst they attempt to thwart reality and prolong the inevitable.
Needless to say, I hope I’m wrong and 2009 is the long awaited return to San Diego annual real estate appreciation.
Prior related posts:
San Diego Real Estate to Drop 20% in 2009?
San Diego Home Mortgage Lenders … Hardball or Common Sense?
Existing Home Sales Increase … Prices Fall
Commercial Real Estate Slump Possible in 2009
San Diego Real Esate Sales Increase
Next … Direct Housing Bailout?
New Home Construction Falls
California Home Prices Forecast to Fall 6% in 2009
San Diego Condominium Sales Price Appreciation
Although the foreclosures may have plateau, the correction still has a little ways to go. Sorry, fundamental values stand for SOMETHING and are really your best bet against big losses.
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And this is just the tip of the iceberg. When the dust finally settles, both housing prices and mortgage rates will be subsidized by the taxpayer. This, amigos, is just the next step on the glorious road to socialism. It truly does take a village.
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Savvy investors should be watching all sections of the real estate market. There are similarities between investment, commercial and residential and it behooves the smart person to watch all of them prior to jumping back into real estate investing. There will be a right time! Be smart!!
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As to Fannie & Freddy …the only sane course now is to make the de facto nationalization official. In which case there is no reason to have two entities. Freddie was created in the first place to provide some semblance of competition for Fannie.
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Move Fannie back into HUD. Fannie Mae was separated from HUD in 1968. It’s time to reverse this. Moving Fannie into HUD extends the full faith and credit guarantee umbrella.
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It seems clear that housing values are headed downward at least another 15 to 25% and I am a bit stunned that anyone besides home builders, Realtors & homeowners trying to sell would assert “now is the time to buy.”
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If now is a good time to buy, later is a good time to pay half as much. Only now is not a good time to buy. And later than later will be 1/4 as much as now.
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