Commercial Property Defaults 2024

Big corporate landlords like Blackstone are defaulting on mortgages of commercial property across America.

Resulting in 90% declines in values in some cases, especially in cities like Las Vegas.

Commercial Property Defaults 2024

In Las Vegas, Blackstone is nearing default on a 1.4 million SF office complex. One of several big properties than Blackstone has stopped making payments on and could hand back to the lender.

These defaults are causing commercial property values to drop. With offices down 35% from peak and apartments down 30%. In cities like San Francisco office values are down by nearly 60%. Indicating a huge crash in the commercial real estate market.

One comment made on this video:

I was a commercial lender through the downturns in the early 90s, 01, and 08. In terms of commercial property the worst I saw was the ’90s where we had vacancy rates go through the roof on many types of property. That alone cause what amounted to a depression in commercial real estate, affecting office, warehouse, retail, and other property types. With vacancy even worse, and more permanent now, due to the lasting effects of the pandemic and work at home impacts, we have enough already to create a depression but couple that with interest rates rising several points and it’s a recipe for disaster. And in the ’08 downturn it took the banks over 2 years to fully realize what was going on so the fact that we’re not hearing a lot now doesn’t mean we won’t face major issues over the coming years. Compared to the other downturns we are now much more at risk because, until the pandemic, our economy basically had everything maxed out. Student loans auto loans stock market prices – you name it, and now interest rates, etc. so any one of those factors turning negative could be the catalyst for a unending cascade of events that could end up who knows where….

Commercial Property Defaults 2024

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