July 12, 2024

housing recessionToday's report on the job market in August, showing the first monthly drop in four years, raised concerns that the recession afflicting the housing sector may be spilling over into the wider economy. The much weaker-than-expected employment report almost insures a cut in interest rates at the Federal Reserve's next scheduled meeting Sept. 18.

More economists are now talking about a 'possible' recession. If you have been a loyal reader of this blog, you know that as early as 10-25-06 I had a post about a real estate led recession. In this post, InvesTech Research stated that going back to 1968, with just one exception, every time there has been a downturn in residential construction, a recession has occurred at the same time or shortly after. Yes, our readers had a nine month 'heads up' of what now economists are calling a 'probability.'

Actually, I have had a total of 12 posts about a real estate driven recession posibility. For ease of reference, they are: Real Estate Recession Looming?, RECESSION?, It’s Always A Good Time To Buy Real Estate!, Bicoastal Housing Recession Forecast By UCSD Economist, Greenspan – Possible Recession This Year!, Seven Year Low in New Home Sales!, Real Estate Bubble Bust … Be Worried … Be VERY Worried, Drop in Housing Values Could be the Factor that Leads Us Into Recession, Real Estate and Construction Misery Dramatically Slows California’s Job Growth, New High for California Foreclosures, U.S. Recession Forcast … It’s on The Way, Surprise HUGE Drop in Pending Home Sales = Regional Recession?

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5 thoughts on “Employment Report Negative Surprise . . . for Some

  1. I think the CA housing market has slowed some, but here in OC, houses still seem to be retaining a high value, and they are still selling in a reasonable amount of time. It boggles my mind. There may be more homes on the market, due to foreclosures and people who had the adjustable mortgage rate, and since rates have gone up, people can’t afford to pay the higher fees. But I’m just guessing.
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  2. San Diego home values are going throught the “adjusting” phase right now and guesses are value will gradually to stablize by mid or late 2008. If you have noticed, homes on the market now usually list below market hoping to attract more buyers and create multiple offer scenario in order for homes to be sold at higher than list price, which will help build up buyers’ confidence. In addition, Fed is keeping the rate steady to help with market down turn. All in all, i am still optimistic about the real estate market. San Diego bail bonds

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