July 14, 2024

Are Big Home Price Declines Ahead?

Large housing market corrections are due roughly every 11-12 years, so last year would have been 12 yrs. With the way its going, the markets are completely disconnected. So, when it happens, it will probably black swan type of event that is the trigger!

Home and equity prices always come down from tops. History always repeats. Problem all of us have is timing. fear of missing out can take us to even crazier home price levels. But it always happens. Cycles always reset, with different circumstances IMHO. I think that is what Shiller is saying.

Are Big Home Price Declines Ahead?

The amount home prices fall is really going to depend city to city. Certain areas of the country saw a 40% rise in prices over the course of this last year vs others who maybe only saw a 5-10% increase. I don’t think you can ONLY look at interest rates. It’s migration rates in/out of the city, how high the real estate / rent went up vs wage growth, those backlogged construction permits (takes around 6-10 months for the houses to be finished so expected an influx of new homes in a few months from investors trying to offload ASAP to turn a profit when they realize prices have started to go down), so many factors will dictate the fall and it’s all so varied city to city.

Demand for home are finally starting to recede somewhat. Inventory is also starting to pick up. Another main catalyst to a possible correction in home prices is the termination of all the mortgage forbearance, rental moratoriums (except in California where it seems they will continue the perpetual extensions until the majority of the small Mom & Pop landlords are forced into foreclosure) and unemployment benefits. Now we may truly see how our real economy is doing. Get your cash ready investors and be patient because there will be opportunities perhaps as soon as a year from now.

Home Price Declines Ahead

 

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