July 19, 2024

Pending Home sales drop

Pending home sales fall for fourth straight month!

Pending home sales - California real estate - New California Real Estate Tax
Pending home sales fall

The Pending home sales are a leading indicator of the housing market,  and from the latest National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index  report, pending home sales declined for the fourth straight month!

Yes, the index fell 4.1% in February from January and dropped 5.4% from the same month a year ago!

Pending Home sales drop

San Diego home appreciation

Unsold housing inventory was at a 1.7-month supply at the current sales pace, up from the record-low supply in January of 1.6 months and down from 2.0 months in February 2021.

It is this lack of home inventory that is the main force in driving home prices to record highs.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in February rose 15% to $357,300, up 15.0% from February 2021, as home prices grew in each region. But, also keep in mind, that this marks 120 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, and that is the longest-running streak on record!

Another ominous sign for the housing market . . . after just a quarter point rise by the Federal Reserve, home mortgage interest rates have jumped more than a half-point in two weeks — the largest two-week jump since June 2009. The Federal Reserve has said that this is the first interest rate hike in what they are projecting to be multiple hikes in 2022! The rate on the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (the most common home loan) jumped to 4.42%, up from 4.16% a week ago, according to Freddie Mac.

I believe this is what the start of  a major real estate market bust looks like!  Sure, the real estate industry will soon start to say this is just a normal pullback, or what a great opportunity to get into the market, another good saying . .  If you missed purchasing a home in the hot real estate market, now is your chance to get in before it continues to rocket higher!

Yes, these tried-and-true sales motivators are sure to start appearing in numerous publications.  But, for me personally, there are just too many signs out there,  that indicate this market has already started to turn downward!  Just like we’ve had an unprecedented real estate market appreciation, I think many are going to be surprised by what to me, seems and almost assured double digit percentage drop in home prices in many regional markets.

Always keep in mind, that purchasing a home is a major lifestyle decision, and as such, should not be rushed into. So, by all means, if you’re considering purchasing or selling real estate in today’s market, do your own homework and draw your own conclusions! But, also consult with your legal & financial advisors prior to making your moves.

My opinions here are just that, opinions!  The fact that I’ve been in the residential real estate market for over three decades, does not mean that my opinions are going to be any more accurate then your mother-in-law’s opinion, though I sure hope they are!


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