San Diego County Residential Real Estate Market Analysis – 4rd Quarter 2012
©2013 By Mark A. Melikian California Certified Residential Appraiser appraisals@san.rr.com P.O. Box 3051 Del Mar, California 92014 858-793-9339
The following is a market data summary of detached and attached properties as reported by the San Diego County MLS system. The data includes all zip codes in San Diego County as reported by the San Diego County MLS system.
Market Overview: The data provided analyzes residential real estate sales beginning in the year 2000, which is used as the base year. The number of sold listings in San Diego County peaks in 2003 at 42,746 units and decreases through 2008 to 23,972 units (see figure 1). There were 35,935 sales in 2012, up from 31,885 in 2011.
Market Overview: The monthly absorption rate (number of units sold in a given month) will mirror the trend we see in the number of sold listings. The peak monthly absorption rate occurred in 2003 with 3,562 units selling per month (see figure 2). The 2008 monthly absorption rate decreased to a low of 1,998 units. In 2012 monthly absorption rate was 2,995 units, up from 2,657 in 2011.
Market Overview: The mean sold price for a housing unit in San Diego County peaked in 2007 at $621,675 (see figure 3). The mean sold price in 2012 was $438,096. This represents a 29.5 percent decrease from the market peak in 2007. The mean sold price in 2012 increased 6.8 percent from 2011, when the mean sold price was $410,249.
Market Overview: The mean number of days a property was on the market before it sold reached a low of 29 in San Diego County in 2004 (see figure 4). In 2011 that number peaked at 79 days on market. In 2012 the mean number of days on market was 72.
Detached Housing Market Specifics – 4th Quarter 2011 compared with 4th Quarter 2012: Detached home sales data for the 4th quarter of 2012 shows the highest numbers of sales were in the $300,000-$400,000 price range. This reflects a shift from the 4th quarter of 2011, when the highest number of sales were in the $200,000-$300,000 price range (see figure 5).
Attached Housing Market Specifics – 4th Quarter 2011 compared with 4th Quarter 2012: Attached homes sales data for the 4th quarter of 2012 shows the highest number of sales were in the under $200,000 price range. This is consistent with the 4th quarter of 2011, when the highest number of sales were in the same price range (see figure 6).
Detached and Attached Housing Market Specifics – 4th Quarter 2012 Housing Supply: Normal residential real estate markets typically have a six to seven month supply of housing inventory. Based on 4th quarter 2012 absorption rates, current supply levels for detached properties are at, or below, normal market levels up to the $1,500,000 plus price range. Current supply levels for attached properties are at, or below, normal market levels up to the same price range (see figure 7).
Comments and Outlook: The 2012 San Diego county housing market showed an increase in both the mean sales price and sales volume. Housing prices, number of units sold, and absorption rates all increased over the past year. The number of days on market decreased, slightly to 72 days. Multiple offers were reported on many properties during 2012; especially those in the $400,000 and below price ranges. As a result, the mean sold price increased (see figure 3).
The supply of housing began to shrink in 2011 and continues to remain at below normal levels for most price ranges (see figure 7). Given this current level of housing supply, a competitive environment is expected to continue in the near future for buyers in most housing price ranges. The impact of the current supply levels continues to result in an increase in sale prices, as noted above.
The highest concentration of detached housing sales continues to be inventory priced below $400,000. The highest concentration of attached housing sales continues to be inventory priced below $200,000. The number of overall housing sales increased in 2012 (as noted above) and most sales activity continues to remain in the lower price ranges (entry level housing).
With supply at below normal levels in most price ranges we can expect a continuation of a more competitive environment for most buyers. Many real estate professionals continue to report multiple offers on their listings. Cash buyers, investors and owner occupants with financing are all competing for available inventory. Subsequent reports will continue to analyze the trends in local housing supplies, sales volume and sales prices.
 Residential Real Estate Market San Diego County
