The good housing news was that according to the Case-Shiller home price index released today by Standard & Poor’s, U.S. homes in 20 major cities rose by 1.2% in August compared with July, the fourth monthly increase in a row. For August, prices rose in 17 of 20 cities. Only Charlotte, Cleveland and Las Vegas recorded month-to-month declines.
The bad housing news part of this report was that in the past year, prices are down 11.3% in the 20 cities. Prices in all 20 cities were lower in August 2009 than in August 2008.
San Diego home prices for August according to Case-Shiller was up 1.6%. But, over the past year, San Diego home prices were down 8.9%.
According to the Case-Shiller data, below are the home price changes in each of the 20 cities over the past year:
Las Vegas, down 29.9%; Phoenix, down 25.1%; Detroit, down 22.6%; Miami, down 18.8%; Tampa, Fla., down 17.7%; Seattle, down 14.7%; Minneapolis, down 13.7%; Chicago, down 12.7%; Portland, down 12.5%; San Francisco, down 12.5%; Los Angeles, down 12%; Atlanta, down 10.6%; New York, down 9.6%; San Diego, Calif., down 8.9%; Charlotte, N.C., down 8.6%; Washington, down 7.9%; Boston, down 4.2%; Cleveland, down 2.8%; Denver, down 1.9%; and Dallas, down 1.2%.
Home prices do not double in price on average every ten years. There is no evidence to support such a statement. S&P case shriller home index which goes back to 1890 found that SFR prices went up at the rate of inflation over time. If they do double in any short period it’s called a asset bubble and values return to medium as the bubble implodes. OFHEO also shows long term prices run with inflation and return to normal price levels rather than continuing to rise. In order for RE to double every 10 years average income would also need to rise with it, which if you haven’t noticed doesn’t happen and when it does as during the 70’s yield on bonds jump into the teen’s and the FED pushes up interest rates causing home prices to decline.
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Compare the value of Real Estate in Palo Alto to the DotCom stocks … Real Estate will start ticking back up in the next year or 2 … Anyone think Priceline.com will ever be worth a tenth of its former high?
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Those discussing the large drop in home prices that need to happen are failing to mention that the nominal price will not fall that far because Bernake is inflating the market; real prices will fall 30%+, however.
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