San Diego Real Estate Market
This is part two of two. See yesterday’s post for part one of this San Diego Real Estate Market analysis
San Diego County Residential Real Estate Market Analysis: 3rd Quarter 2013
3rd Quarter 2013©2013 By Mark A. Melikian California Certified Residential Appraiser appraisals@san.rr.com P.O. Box 3051 Del Mar, California 92014 858-793-9339
Market Overview: The mean number of days a property was on the market in San Diego County reached a low of 29 in 2004. *The projection for 2013 shows the mean number of days on market to be at 46, lower than the 72 days in 2012 (see figure 4).
Detached Housing Market Specifics – 3rd Quarter 2012 compared with 3rd Quarter 2013: Detached home sales data for the 3rd quarter of 2013 shows the highest number of sales were in the $300,000-$400,000 price range (1,803 units). This is relatively consistent with the 3rd quarter of 2012 when 1,920 units sold in the same price range (see figure 5).
Attached Housing Market Specifics – 3rd Quarter 2012 compared with 3rd Quarter 2013: Attached home sales data for the 3rd quarter of 2013 shows the highest number of sales were in the $200,000-$300,000 price range (1,068 units). This is an increase from the 3rd quarter of 2012, when the highest number of sales were in the Under $200,000 price range (1,102 units – see figure 6).
Detached and Attached Housing Market Specifics – 3rd Quarter 2013 Housing Supply: Normal residential real estate markets typically have a six to seven month supply of housing inventory. Based on 3rd quarter 2013 absorption rates, current supply levels for detached properties are at (or below) normal market levels up to the $1,500,000 plus price ranges. Similarly, current supply levels for attached properties are at (or below) normal market levels up to the $1,500,000 plus price ranges (see figure 7).
Comments and Outlook: Based on the first three quarters of the year, projections for the 2013 San Diego County housing market show sales volume, absorption rates and sales prices to increase while days on market will decrease.
The highest volume of sales activity for attached units is projected to be below $400,000 and the highest volume of sales activity for detached units is projected to be below $500,000.
Low levels of inventory through the first three quarters have contributed to this increase in sales prices. However, during the third quarter of this year the number of detached listings and the number of attached listings have increased by 26 percent and 34 percent, respectively. Despite these increases the supply of housing is still at relatively low levels (see figure 7).
Current housing levels and the increased absorption rates (see figure 2) suggest the potential for a continued competitive environment for buyers in most housing price ranges. The impact of the recent increase in supply levels will be analyzed in subsequent reports.
With the highest concentration of housing continuing to sell below $500,000, real estate professionals should focus on these price points. The market has seen an increase in the rate of price appreciation over the past quarter and this upward trend will continue to be analyzed in subsequent reports.
