July 14, 2024

Home Price Declines 2023

Home Price Declines 2023 -San Diego aerial photography

Could Home Prices could fall by 30% in 2023?

Already, hard-hit cities such as Phoenix, Austin, and San Francisco, where some home prices are already down 10% or more from the market peak!

Home Price Declines 2023

Home Price Declines 2023 -San Diego California Real Estate

It’s important for Homebuyers to remember that the US Housing Market is still in the biggest bubble ever entering 2023.

Some think because the mortgage rates have been coming down a little, while the Fed is raising the Fed rate is a sign the housing market is improving.  But, this is the same thing that happened going into the last crash of 2008. When mortgage applications fall, the mortgage banks lower their rates to draw in buyers. Their margins on the loans are tighter, but to them, some margin is better than none. And the Fed has done some quantitative tightening, but not enough yet, the banks are still awash in liquidity. So, lenders lowering mortgage rates is just one more sign that no one wants to buy a house. It’s a basic supply and demand dynamic.

Going forward, I expect the mortgage rates to fluctuate up and down. They raise the rate knowing that mortgage origination will stagnate, then they lower it and a bunch more people buy in because the rate looks relatively better. This is what has been occurring recently when the rates came down some.

The ratio of Home Prices to Income is the highest on record. Even higher than before the 2008 Housing Crash. That means that homebuyers in America are priced out. They can’t afford the downpayments or mortgage payments.

The demand to buy houses is currently sitting at the lowest level in a decade. That record-low buyer demand is the sign of the first stage of the Housing Crash. The second stage will include much bigger declines in prices. In cities such as Charlotte, Tampa, and Dallas, where home prices are 30% overvalued, we could see sellers cut the price substantially in 2023. Same in metros such as Miami and Las Vegas.

The problem is that home prices went through the roof everywhere. Yes, with about a 40% home price increase over the past two years,

No doubt we’re already in recession, but the worst is yet to come. Look at the layoff news: 

Since the start of the year, 297 tech companies laid off nearly 95,000 workers, according to data compiled by Layoffs.fyi, a website that’s been tracking tech layoffs since March 2020. If that rate continues, the industry could cut more than 900,000 jobs in 2023!

Disney announced it plans to cut 7,000 jobs!

Goldman Sachs has announced it plans to cut 3,200 jobs!

Amazon announced it would lay off 18,000 workers!

Google’s parent company, Alphabet, said it will be laying off 12,000 employees!

Microsoft announced it would be cutting 10,000 jobs!

Salesforce said it plans to cut 8,000 jobs!

Dell announced plans to cut approximately 6,650 jobs!

IBM announced on Jan. 25 that it plans to cut around 3,900 jobs!

Multinational software company SAP said on Jan. 26 that it plans to layoff 3,000 employees!

PayPal announced it plans to cut 2,000 jobs!

Furniture retailer Wayfair announced it will be laying off approximately 1,750 workers!

Zoom announced in a blog post that it will be reducing its workforce by around 15%!

Boeing said it expects to cut approximately 2,000 white-collar jobs!

On Jan. 19, Capital One laid off 1,100 workers!

HubSpot has let go of about 500 employees, or 7% of its total staff!

Home Price Declines 2023


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