We know a round of massive foreclosure ( Real Estate Market Bottom or Wishful Thinking?) is just starting, we know that unemployment is still increasing , we know we are probably in a growthless recovery (if any), etc. I think the simple conclusion is that San Diego housing has not bottomed yet and will not bottom this year.
The Case Shiller index of home prices is only down to 2002 or 2003 whereas the S&P last March was back to 1997 level. Given the bubble we have gone through in housing, I don’t see why the bursting of it would only get us back to 2002-2003.
This means more and more housing equity wealth is evaporating, thus damaging more and more retirement dreams and hopes of college education for the kids.
Mark these words, it will be much worse that the ‘73-’75 recession, it will very likely be worse than the Great Depression, but will be a depression, a real depression. A morning’s worth of true, overall. Thoughtful research will convince anyone willing to face the truth.
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Consumer demand has dropped. Unemployment is rising.. The US will go into a recession at best, a depression at worst. Expect first stagflation (high inflation and high unemployment), both because of the increased price of imports and deliberate pump priming by the Fed, then deflation, as asset prices collapse so hard they take everything else with them. The other likely scenario is stagflation followed by hyperinflation. Formal inflation numbers put out will become not just a joke amongst market-watchers, but amongst the actual population. Same thing with unemployment numbers.
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