This is the 1st. of a three part article By Mark A. Melikian California Certified Residential Appraiser appraisals@san.rr.com
The following is a summary of market data of detached and attached properties as reported by the San Diego County MLS system. The data includes all zip codes in San Diego County. * All 2009 data in figures 1 through 4 will be projected based on market data taken from January through June as reported by the San Diego County MLS system. All projections discussed in this analysis will be updated throughout the year in subsequent quarterly reports.
Market Overview: The data provided analyzes residential real estate sales beginning in the year 2000, which is used as the base year. In San Diego County the number of sold listings peaks in 2003 at 42,746 units and decreases through 2008 to 23,972 units (see figure 1). *The 2009 projection shows the total number of units sold in 2009 will be 31,304.
The monthly absorption rate (number of units sold in a given month) will mirror the trend we see in the number of sold listings. The peak monthly absorption rate occurred in 2003 with 3,562 units selling per month (see figure 2). The 2008 monthly absorption rate decreased to 1,998 units. *The 2009 projection shows a monthly absorption rate of 2,609 units.
The mean sold price for a housing unit in San Diego County peaked in 2007 at $621,675 (see figure 3). 2008 finished with a mean sold price of $409,259, a 34.2 percent drop from the previous year. *The 2009 projection shows a mean sold price of $366,583, which would represent a 10.4 percent drop from the 2008 mean sold price and a 41 percent drop from the market peak in 2007.
The mean number of days a property was on the market before it sold reached a low of 29 in San Diego County in 2004 (see figure 4). In 2007 and 2008 that number reached a high of 66. *The 2009 projection shows a slight decrease to 64.
*See the next part of this post tomorrow.
This was a good post; I am not sure if I have anything positive to say. First off, growth in home prices over the past few years was unnatural too. There were things in the mix that caused the free market system not to work, or maybe better said, “balloon.” There was government trying to create more tax revenue by relaxing monetary guidelines, the fed was keeping interest rates low on an artificial basis and then there were the promoters- Realtors, Mortgage companies, builders and the media to name a few, who pushed the notion that you could get a home for free. The risk reward portion of the equation was taken out. Now we face an industry that is broken and may not recover for quite awhile.
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The issue at the core of the recovery is how long it will take to get the number of qualified buyers back. We have lost many homebuyers. All the people in foreclosure can’t buy for at least 3 years because of bank guidelines. Then they will have to save the money too. Plus we have taken some investors out of the market. At what point will new home buyers equal the old foreclosed people is the answer to when the market will come back. My guess is 3 to 5 years.
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